clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Andrew Luck Draft Sweepstakes: Stanford Quarterback Potentially Heading To Indianpolis, Miami, Kansas City

Andrew Luck is going to be a coveted man by NFL teams across the league for the next six months as the draft approaches. While Twitter and social media phenomenons such as "#Suck4Luck" have already surfaced across the web, perhaps a mathematical look at which teams have the best chance at landing the star quarterback would be an interesting change of pace.

The folks at FootballOutsiders.com have a mathematical formula for predicting the which team will come away with the No.1 selection in 2012. Let's take a look at the favorites to land that pick after four weeks of play.

Team - Chance at No. 1 pick - Chance at Top 3 Pick

St. Louis - 27.5% - 58.4%
Indianapolis - 19.5% - 48.2%
Miami - 9.8% - 30.2%
Kansas City - 8.7% - 28.5%
Jacksonville - 8.6% - 27.9%
Carolina - 6.5% - 23.3%
Seattle - 5.5% - 19.7%
Denver - 4.9% - 19.1%
Minnesota - 4.3% - 16.7%

The rest of the teams in the league have < 3% chance of the top pick, though anything is possible.

As for the teams currently near the top of the Luck Leaderboard, St. Louis would likely trade the pick seeing as they have former No. 1 overall selection Sam Bradford set as their quarterback of the future. One would have to assume the same for Carolina and Jacksonville with each of those teams taking a quarterback in the top-10 last year (Newton, Gabbert).

As for the Indianapolis Colts, they are the most interesting team in this whole scenario. While there is no doubting they have struggled mightily without Peyton Manning this year, the Hall-of-Fame quarterback is expected to be fully healthy next season. The prevailing thought is Indianapolis would take Luck to set themselves up once Manning leaves for good, but with an aging offensive line and iffy defense, there is the chance the Colts would elect to pass on Luck and solidify other spots on their roster with the multiple draft picks they could get should they deal the No. 1 pick.

As for the remaining teams on the list, selecting Luck would be a no-brainer.