Although the fans down in Palo Alto can dream about the faint hopes of a BCS National Championship or the first trip in over a decade to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl Game, they should be prepared for disappointment. If the Auburn Tigers and Oregon Ducks both take care of business on Saturday, they will in all likelihood be headed for another BCS bowl.
So if the status quo holds, it's very likely that the Fiesta Bowl will end up with the Stanford Cardinal because they have the last selection. Since no other bowl will be that interested in taking Jim Harbaugh's fourth ranked team due to attendance concerns by their fanbase, they will end up in the bowl that has to take them. It'll put them in Glendale (which at the very least is geographically accommodating compared to Miami), and they'd await the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game.
The question is, who would Stanford rather face?
If you said Bo Pellini's Big 12 outbound Nebraska Cornhuskers, I don't believe you watch much college football. Their option attack is very similar to the type of offense Oregon showcases, eventually wearing down opponents with zone-reads and a variety of different rushing looks. Now remember that the Ducks eventually broke down Stanford for 52 points and and 388 rushing yards after being behind 21-3. Nebraska isn't as good as Oregon at running their system, but they're pretty damned efficient when they get going. The Huskers ran for over 3200 yards and nearly six yards per rush, top ten in the country in both categories.
Then there's the defense. Although Jake Locker hasn't had a great season, his worst game came against Nebraska by a wide margin (4 of 20, one touchdown, two interceptions). With Stanford being big on the passing offense, you'd guess that Andrew Luck would be a little worried about throwing into the Nebraska back seven (18 interceptions, tied for seventh; 145 passing yards allowed per game and a 94 passer rating, second in the country in both categories behind TCU)
That leads to a potential rematch with the Oklahoma Sooners. Despite Luck being injured in last year's Sun Bowl in El Paso and Tavita Pritchard having to generate offense against a stout Oklahoma front, it still came down to the final few minutes. Jim Harbaugh made a questionable decision to pass the ball on 4th and short instead of handing the ball off to Toby Gerhart. Safe to say with a lot of Cardinal returning from last season, they'd be eager to win the rematch and pound Oklahoma to oblivion.
Bob Stoops's teams have not done well as of late in BCS games either.
via friendsoftheprogram.files.wordpress.com
