Sticking with the A.J. Green discussion over the past couple of days, we'll take a look at who the 49ers would likely be leaving behind if Green were to fall to them at the seventh overall pick. Yesterday, second and third round options at key positions were explored under the assumption that the 49ers would be taking Green in the first, which would indicate a "best player available (BPA)" drafting strategy.
However, there are a few teams ahead of the 49ers that would like to get Green's services, or at least it appears that way. If he were to make it to seven, that means those teams would have been presented with options they like better. Would those options be players that the 49ers would normally take over Green as well? It's probable, so let's take a look at the circumstances.
The two teams I've identified as probable destinations for A.J. Green ahead of the 49ers are the Cincinnati Bengals at pick four and the Cleveland Browns at pick six. The Bengals are the most likely candidate, but they do have other pressing needs. They could use another defensive lineman, particularly an end, and someone like Da'Quan Bowers could be the pick, easily. The problem with that logic is that all three teams above will consider drafting Bowers. Cincinnati could also be in the market for a quarterback, and the thought is that either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton could be considered at that pick. Unfortunately, the Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills could both take quarterbacks, leaving the Bengals with no option but to take A.J. Green. If both quarterbacks, Green and Bowers are there at four, I'd say Green is the second priority, behind a quarterback.
The Browns also have defensive line needs, and wouldn't you know it: defensive linemen may just be available. The aforementioned Da'Quan Bowers is definitely an option, but as noted, the top four teams would consider taking him, so that may be out of the question. Someone like Nick Fairley could be the pick, along with Marcell Dareus, and depending on where the first two picks go, one of those two could be available.
With these defensive line guys and the quarterbacks, that's plenty enough for Green to fall to the 49ers at the seventh pick. If he did though, and using the logic above, who else is on the board? Von Miller probably goes to Arizona at five, but they also could go after a quarterback. It's actually likely that one of Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara or Von Miller would be there at the seventh overall pick, and if so, A.J. Green might as well ... the question now is, would the 49ers take Green over Peterson or Miller?
No .... no they would not.