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Football Outsiders Gives 2-6 San Francisco 49ers 25% Shot To Win NFC West

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders is far from counting out one of the most disappointing teams in football.

Seattle has completely melted down over the past two weeks with DVOA of -98.3% against Oakland and then -108.9% against the Giants. Because of this, the 2-6 San Francisco 49ers actually have the best DVOA in the NFC West right now. Maybe they really could pull off a division title. The current DVOA playoff odds report gives all four teams in the NFC West an average projection between 6.5 and 7.1 wins, and all four teams are listed with between 19 percent and 29 percent chance of winning the division.

Yes, the 49ers, despite a dreadful 0-5 start and only one noticeable win (that against their cross-bay rivals, the surging Oakland Raiders) only trail the Seahawks and St. Louis Rams. And if you look at the schedule...well, it makes some sense.

The 49ers have eight more games to play, and FIVE of them are within the division. While wins in Glendale against the Arizona Cardinals and in St. Louis against the Rams aren't going to be easy, they're far preferable to some of the brutal slates most bottom-dwellers have to play to get back into the playoff hunt. With only two games to make up on Seattle and St. Louis, beating them could go a long way to making up the gap.

I'm not sure what these odds project more--how pathetic the NFC West is, or how right the prognosticators are in stating that San Francisco didn't need to do much to win the division this season.