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2012 NBA Lottery Draft Odds: A Breakdown Of The Warriors Chances

The 2012 tank-a-thon for the Golden State Warriors has seemingly been in place for months already, but with only a few games left on the schedule, the W's are really, really in need of more losses.

CSN Bay Area's Mike Kreuser has been crunching the numbers, and has come up with all the possible scenarios remaining for the Warriors to retain their lottery protected first-round pick. The only guaranteed way the W's keep their pick is to finish fourth-worst record or lower, if not, they turn it over to the Utah Jazz.

Currently residing in the 8th worst spot with six games left, Golden State will need to lose them all and get some help from other squads if they want to finish with the fourth-worst record.

Here's a look at where the Warriors stand within the league and the rest of their schedules the rest of the regular season:

Team Record Win % Games left Remaining Opponents
23-38 .367 5 at ATL, vs MIN, vs TOR, at IND, vs PHI
Warriors 22-38 .367 6 vs LAL, at DAL, at HOU, at MIN, vs NOH, vs SAS
New Jersey
22-40 .355 4 vs NYK, at MIL, vs PHI, at TOR
22-40 .355 4 at MIA, at DET, at MIL, vs NJN
20-40 .339 6 vs PHI, vs NYK, at SAS, at MEM, vs WAS, at CHI
20-41 .328 5 vs SAS, vs OKC, at CHA, at OKC, vs LAL
New Orleans
19-42 .311 5 at MEM, vs HOU, at LAC, at GSW, at HOU
15-46 .246 5 vs MIL, at MIA, vs CHA, at CLE, vs MIA
7-53 .117 6 vs CHI, vs MEM, vs SAC, at WAS, at ORL, vs NYK

As you can see it's a very tight group around the bottom of the barrel, but meetings with the Lakers, Mavericks and Spurs to finish the season should hopefully all be losses, as will visits to Minnesota and Houston. And according to Kreuser, if the W's win two of these games their chances fall below 10 percent.

Here are the probabilities for all the Warriors possible finishing records:

Eleventh-worst record - 2.9% chance to keep the pick (0.8% for No. 1, 0.9% for No. 2, 1.2% for No. 3), 97.1% chance at 11th or lower.

Tenth-worst record - 4.0% chance to keep the pick (1.1% for No. 1, 1.3% for No. 2, 1.6% for No. 3), 96.0% chance at 10th or lower.

Ninth-worst record - 6.1% chance to keep the pick (1.7% for No. 1, 2.0% for No. 2, 2.4% for No. 3), 93.9% chance at 9th or lower.

Eighth-worst record - 10.0% chance to keep the pick (2.8% for No. 1, 3.3% for No. 2, 3.9% for No. 3), 90.0% chance at 8th or lower.

Seventh-worst record - 75.0% chance to keep the pick (4.3% for No. 1, 4.9% for No. 2, 5.8% for No. 3, 59.9% for No. 7), 25% chance at 8th or lower.

Sixth-worst record - 95.9% chance to keep the pick (6.3% for No. 1, 7.1% for No. 2, 8.1% for No. 3, 43.9% for No. 6, 30.5% for No. 7), 4.1% chance at 8th or lower.

Fifth-worst record - 99.7% chance to keep the pick (8.8% for No. 1, 9.7% for No. 2, 10.7% for No. 3, 26.1% for No. 5, 36.0% for No. 6, 8.4% for No. 7), 0.4% chance at the 8th pick.

Fourth-worst record - 100.0% chance the Warriors keep their 2012 No. 1 pick.

It will certainly come down to the wire, but hopefully the odds will shine on the Warriors favor.

For more in depth discussion and analysis of the Golden State Warriors, head over to Golden State of Mind.