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Monta Ellis, Not The Scorer As Advertised

In the past year, Monta Ellis’ made his way onto the national radar for his late game heroics and electrifying performances on national television. His offensive outburts versus the Los Angeles Lakers have been so spectacular that Kobe Bryant voluntarily offers his vote of approval anytime they match-up.

But as the center of many trade rumors as of late, critics have taken note, using advanced statistics, that Monta Ellis is an overrated scorer. SB Nation writers weigh in on the alleged talks between the Warriors and the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers and there seems to be a growing critique that Monta Ellis won’t upgrade a team…at all.

Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstripe Post provides a range of reasons why Ellis is not really the scorer as advertised. But beyond his lack of scoring efficiency, numbers show that the Warriors were better off with him on the bench. Here’s a brief snippet:

Over the same span, only six players have averaged more than one shot attempt every two minutes. Ellis ranks last among them in efficiency, with a True Shooting mark of 52.7. Last season, the average NBAer had a True Shooting mark of 54.3.

In short, Ellis takes a lot of shots at below-average efficiency.

Over at SB Nation’s Liberty Ballers, Jordan Sams concludes through offensive statistics per 36 minutes and other advanced stats that Monta Ellis is actually no different than the Philadelphia 76ers own Lou Williams. For those advanced stat challenged folks like myself, here are the basics:

Ellis – 21.5 points, 5 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.9 steals

Williams – 21.2 points, 5.2 assists 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 steal

The only significant advantage Monta had over Lou is his field goal percentage of 45, opposed to 41 for Lou. However; when free throws and threes are factored in, the players’ true shooting percentages are identical. Lou got to the line 2.5 more times per 36, and shot a slightly better percentage (82% to 79%). He also made 0.3 more threes per 36, but shot a slightly lower percentage than Monta (36% to 35%).

There is more nuance to these analyses about Monta Ellis’ offensive value and overall value to a team when he’s off and on the court, which I encourage you to read in full.

With that said, will the Warriors struggle to find a new home for Monta Ellis? And as one of the Warriors best players, what kind of value should the Warriors expect to get in return?