Chris Cariaso is a very solid prospect in the UFC, and he just happens to fight out of San Jose, CA, where he was born. That's right up our alley, so needless to say we're rooting for him. That being said, we won't say "good luck," or anything of the sort - cage fighters don't like to make careers on getting lucky, and by all accounts, this matchup already heavily favors Cariaso, so there's not a whole lot to worry about.
Cariaso is 13-3 in his young mixed martial arts career, with two of those losses coming to very, very talented prospects. Sure, his loss to Mark Oshiro is an outlier, but that was back in 2008, just seven fights into his professional career. His other losses were to Renan Barao, who is fighting Urijah Faber for the Interim Bantamweight championship and Michael McDonald, the Modesto native who mauled Miguel Torres at UFC 145.
"Mayday" is clearly the real deal, and the fact that Cariaso was able to take him to the limit in a very close split decision speaks volumes. It was at that point that people got excited about his potential going forward, and he rattled off two very solid wins to reinforce that - besting Vaughan Lee and Takeya Mizugaki.
Mizugaki was one of the highest rated guys at the weight class, and has fought guys like Urijah Faber, Miguel Torres and Scott Jorgensen. Cariaso soundly bested him and has made himself a contender. That's why it's a little odd to see him in a fight with Ferguson, who is on a two-fight losing streak, not counting a loss on The Ultimate Fighter to Johnny Bedford.
There's not a lot to say about Ferguson's chances in this fight. He's a brawler who will do all he can do to brawl, while Cariaso is a much more refined fighter who appears better everywhere, except perhaps when it comes to power punching. There's a chance Ferguson knocks him out, but it's a very small chance, and the safe pick is Chris "Kamikaze" Cariaso by decision, or perhaps submission.
For more on mixed martial arts in general, check out everything we have to offer over at MMA Fighting and Bloody Elbow. Also, be sure to check out the Bloody Elbow staff predictions for the whole card here.