2011 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds of Winning For All Fourteen Teams

The NBA draft lottery has become an important part to the health of the NBA's struggling franchises, but at the end of the day it comes down to luck. Sure there was the 1985 gaffe that conspiracy theorists will tell you gave the Knicks Patrick Ewing due to a bent corner on an envelope,  this was before they used ping-pong balls (watch the video). Not to mention the 1993 draft where the Magic were the best team to not make the playoffs and still won the first pick despite their terrible odds. Even with the odds stacked against them, any team can pull off a fluke in the lottery. 

The teams are set for this year, except for the Jazz and the Kings who may switch places after a coin flip because the Nets gave their pick to Utah in the Deron Williams trade, and they finished with the same record as the Kings.

The following table is from SB Nation's Tom Ziller, breaking down each team's chances of getting the top seed or a top 3 pick:

Team No. 1 Pick Top 3 Pick
Timberwolves 25.0% 64.3%
Cavaliers 19.9% 55.8%
Raptors 15.6% 46.9%
Wizards 11.9% 37.8%
Jazz (from Nets) 7.6% 25.4%
Kings 7.5% 25.3%
Pistons 4.3% 15.0%
Cavaliers (from Clippers) 2.8% 10.0%
Bobcats 1.7% 6.1%
Bucks 1.1% 4.0%
Warriors 0.8% 2.9%
Jazz 0.7% 2.5%
Suns 0.6% 2.2%
Rockets 0.5% 1.8%

Even with the slightest of chances of winning, everyone's got a shot. Isn't that why people play the lottery anyway? These 14 teams will be doing the same, trying to beat the odds. 

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join SB Nation Bay Area

You must be a member of SB Nation Bay Area to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SB Nation Bay Area. You should read them.

Join SB Nation Bay Area

You must be a member of SB Nation Bay Area to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SB Nation Bay Area. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.