2011 NBA Draft Lottery: Kings Pick Seventh, Warriors Pick Eleventh In First Round

Storystream covering the NBA Draft Lottery for the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors. For more discussion and analysis of the NBA Draft, head over to SB Nation's Ridiculous Upside.

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2011 NBA Draft Lottery Results: Sacramento Kings Slide To Seventh Pick

The Sacramento Kings have not had great lottery success recently. They were projected to get the first pick in the 2009 NBA Draft and ended up fourth; they were projected to be the third pick and ended up fifth in 2010; and they were projected to be the fifth pick and ended up seventh in 2011. The odds of having that kind of combined dropoff is less than 1% (HT to CloudyEyes for that tip).

Sacramento will now be on the fringe of the best that the NBA draft has to offer, which probably means it's time for a Geoff Petrie special. Petrie has been known to look beyond convention when he hasn't had an obvious pick laying ahead of him, and in the wasteland of the 2011 Draft, he might find plenty of young, off-the-beaten path talent that he can mold and develop into complimentary pieces for Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins.

For more discussion and analysis of the Kings pick head over to Sactown Royalty to discuss. Stay with SB Nation Bay Area for complete coverage of the 2011 NBA Draft.

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2011 NBA Draft Lottery: Golden State Warriors #11 Pick, Historically, Not A Winner

The NBA Draft Lottery seeding gets laid down tonight and the Golden State Warriors “post-season” officially begins. The Warriors are expected to draft at the number eleven spot and, historically, that spot has yielded few lasting results. According to CSN Bay Area’s Matt Steinmetz breakdown of the Warriors draft history since 1985, the Warriors have never moved up when expected to draft at the eleventh spot. Here are the names of the players that the Warriors have drafted at that spot (in chronological order): Todd Fuller, Mickael Pietrus, and Andris Biedrins.

Not exactly an eye-popping group of players.

In fact, since 1985, the Warriors have only moved up three times. The one time they dropped DOWN to the eleventh pick, the Warriors snatched Tyrone Hill, who had a nice career as a defensive presence albeit a bit undersized.

So, what does this mean for our Warriors? Historically speaking, this draft does not bode well for the Warriors. But, really, when has it ever?

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2011 Warriors NBA Mock Drafts: Donatas Motiejunas, Jonas Valanciunas, Marcus Morris, and Bismack Biyombo

Hoopsworld analysts posted their “consensus mock draft 2.0” on the eve of the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery and they pegged the Golden State Warriors to draft one of four different big men all of varying skill-sets and defensive abilities and liabilities. These picks were made under the assumption that the draft order does not change and the Warriors stay put at the number eleven pick corresponding with having the eleventh worst record in the league at seasons end. Of the five analysts, four names popped up with Donatas Motiejunas being the only 2011 draft participant that two analysts both agreed with. The other three possibilities include Jonas Valanciunas, Marcus Morris, and Bismack Biyombo.

Based off Draftexpress.com’s detailed assessments of each player, I would go so far as to say that Marcus Morris would be the best bet for the Warriors given that owner Joe Lacob is in win-now mode. With Morris, you’re getting an undersized big man with a reliable jumper out to 15 feet. Though he seems a big robotic at times with his back to the basket, Morris has good enough handles to get to the rim and he has a decent fade away from the block up to 10 feet. Drawbacks? He seems to play below the rim and that’s not necessarily the best person to have next to David Lee who struggled against almost all forwards taller, quicker, and/or stronger than him. Also, standing at 6’8, it’s not clear at this point how well Morris can rebound at the next level.

Morris may not have the upside of the others listed in the consensus mock draft 2.0, but he has what the Warriors need right now, which is some muscle up front. He may fit into the mold of the Brandon Bass-type. International players Motiejunas and Valanciunas are both raw and rail thin. Motiejunas projects to be more Andrea Bargnani and that’s not a good thing, defensively. Draftexpress.com notes his lack of effort at the defensive end and imagine how much worse that might get playing along side David Lee et al. Valanciunas, shooting 86% from the charity stripe this season, could easily replace Andris Biedrins as the Warriors consistently rawer-than-sushi big man in the middle. But something tells me Lacob wants to get more skilled all-around. And Biyombo has been pegged by some analysts as being a possible #1 overall draft pick. Biyombo falling to the Warriors at #11 seems unlikely. The Warriors could use his defensive efforts and he could be a safe pick that late in the lottery if the Warriors ever have the personnel to help him develop.

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2011 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds of Winning For All Fourteen Teams

The NBA draft lottery has become an important part to the health of the NBA's struggling franchises, but at the end of the day it comes down to luck. Sure there was the 1985 gaffe that conspiracy theorists will tell you gave the Knicks Patrick Ewing due to a bent corner on an envelope,  this was before they used ping-pong balls (watch the video). Not to mention the 1993 draft where the Magic were the best team to not make the playoffs and still won the first pick despite their terrible odds. Even with the odds stacked against them, any team can pull off a fluke in the lottery. 

The teams are set for this year, except for the Jazz and the Kings who may switch places after a coin flip because the Nets gave their pick to Utah in the Deron Williams trade, and they finished with the same record as the Kings.

The following table is from SB Nation's Tom Ziller, breaking down each team's chances of getting the top seed or a top 3 pick:

Team No. 1 Pick Top 3 Pick
Timberwolves 25.0% 64.3%
Cavaliers 19.9% 55.8%
Raptors 15.6% 46.9%
Wizards 11.9% 37.8%
Jazz (from Nets) 7.6% 25.4%
Kings 7.5% 25.3%
Pistons 4.3% 15.0%
Cavaliers (from Clippers) 2.8% 10.0%
Bobcats 1.7% 6.1%
Bucks 1.1% 4.0%
Warriors 0.8% 2.9%
Jazz 0.7% 2.5%
Suns 0.6% 2.2%
Rockets 0.5% 1.8%

Even with the slightest of chances of winning, everyone's got a shot. Isn't that why people play the lottery anyway? These 14 teams will be doing the same, trying to beat the odds. 

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