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The Golden State Warriors have drawn themselves the eleventh overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, but now must decide what to do with it. This will be the fifth time the W’s have drawn the eleventh pick, the most of any NBA team since 1990. What draws them to the eleventh spot like a moth to a flame? Probably luck. But it’s fun to look back and see how players picked in that spot have flowered in the NBA.
1990 was the first year the lottery was extended to 11 picks, so let’s take a look at all of the 11th picks in NBA Lottery history (Warriors Picks Highlighted):
2010: Cole Aldridge, Kansas- Memphis Grizzlies
2009: Terrence Williams, Louisville, New Jersey Nets
2008: Jerryd Bayliss, Arizona- Indiana Pacers
2007: Acie Law, Texas A&M- Atlanta Hawks (from Indiana)
2006: J.J. Redick, Duke- Orlando Magic
2005: Fran Vazquez, Spain- Orlando Magic
2004: Andris Biedrins, Latvia- Golden State Warriors
2003: Mickael Pietrus, France- Golden State Warriors
2002: Jared Jeffries, Indiana- Washington Wizards
2001: Kedrick Brown, Okaloosa-Walton CC- Boston Celtics (from Denver)
2000: Jerome Moiso, UCLA – Boston Celtics
1999: Trajan Langdon, Duke- Cleveland Cavaliers
1998: Bonzi Wells, Ball State- Detroit Pistons
1997: Tariq Abdul-Wahad, San Jose State- Sacramento Kings
1996: Todd Fuller, NC State- Golden State Warriors
1995: Gary Trent, Ohio University- Milwaukee Bucks
1994: Carlos Rodgers, Tennessee State- Seattle Supersonics
1993: Allan Houston, Tennessee- Detroit Pistons
1992: Robert Horry, Alabama- Houston Rockets
1991: Terrell Brandon, Oregon- Cleveland Cavaliers
1990: Tyrone Hill, Xavier – Golden State Warriors
At first glance, one name sticks out to me much more than the others; seven time NBA champion Robert Horry. He’s definitely the most decorated player on this list, but there is a good amount of talent coming from the eleven spot. Allan Houston is a two time all-star, J.J. Reddick and Acie Law are pretty decent role players. There are solid guys on this list.
As for Warriors picks, Mickael Pietrus has become a solid addition to any NBA team, while Warriors fans are all too familiar with the decline of Andris Biedrins. Todd Fuller wasn’t exactly a superstar but Tyrone Hill at least was an all-star in 1995. Could be worse, you know?
Will the fifth time be the charm for the Warriors and the eleventh pick? I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.
They say seven is a lucky number, and it seems to turn out pretty nicely for whoever gets taken in the NBA Draft with this number. If there were any number after one or two the Sacramento Kings could have ended up with in this draft, seven isn't too bad a spot.
Let's take a look at the past two decades of seventh round picks.
2010: Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
2009: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2008: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
2007: Corey Brewer, Minnesota Timberwolves
2006: Randy Foye, Boston Celtics
2005: Charlie Villanueva, Toronto Raptors
2004: Luol Deng, Phoenix Suns (traded to Chicago Bulls)
2003: Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls
2002: Nene Hilario, New York Knicks (traded to Denver Nuggets)
2001: Eddie Griffin, New Jersey Nets (traded to Houston Rockets)
2000: Chris Mihm, Chicago Bulls (traded to Cleveland Cavaliers)
1999: Richard Hamilton, Washington Wizards
1998: Jason Williams, Sacramento Kings
1997: Tim Thomas, Philadelphia 76ers
1996: Lorenzen Wright, Los Angeles Clippers
1995: Damon Stoudamire, Toronto Raptors
1994: Lamond Murray, Los Angeles Clippers
1993: Bobby Hurley, Sacramento Kings
1992: Walt Williams, Sacramento Kings
1991: Luc Longley, Minnesota Timberwolves
Not too bad a list. For the most part, all these players have proven to be solid contributors in the NBA. Monroe and Curry were viable rookie of the year candidates, At the worst, you get a future NBA journeyman that you can swing into future trades. And hey, it wouldn't be the worst thing to get someone with comparable talents to White Chocolate, no?
The Sacramento Kings have not had great lottery success recently. They were projected to get the first pick in the 2009 NBA Draft and ended up fourth; they were projected to be the third pick and ended up fifth in 2010; and they were projected to be the fifth pick and ended up seventh in 2011. The odds of having that kind of combined dropoff is less than 1% (HT to CloudyEyes for that tip).
Sacramento will now be on the fringe of the best that the NBA draft has to offer, which probably means it's time for a Geoff Petrie special. Petrie has been known to look beyond convention when he hasn't had an obvious pick laying ahead of him, and in the wasteland of the 2011 Draft, he might find plenty of young, off-the-beaten path talent that he can mold and develop into complimentary pieces for Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins.
Heading into the 2011 NBA Lottery, Golden State Warriors majority owner Joe Lacob said that getting the number one overall pick had nothing to do with statistics, it’s about the physics of ping pong balls. He might as well said “I’m not holding my breath.”
The W’s 0.8% chance of getting that number one pick pretty much solidified them staying put, and they remained in the eleventh overall pick in this year’s draft. The questions will now turn to who the W’s might choose, and how the team’s front office can make them a contender and in a hurry.
The W’s have the 44th overall pick in the second round as well.
There is still over a month before the draft gets underway, which will give Golden State time to do their homework on this year’s draft class and start designing draft scenarios. Athleticism and size around the rim would seem to be top assets the W’s would be looking for and could look at players like Kwahi Leonard or Jan Vesley amongst many others.
The Cleveland Cavaliers had themselves a rough 2010-2011 season after the loss of LeBron James, but were all smiles this evening at the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery. They used their terrible record and trade with the Los Angeles Clippers to earn themselves the number one overall pick in this year’s draft.
With the Baron Davis trade the Cavs also got the Clips lottery slot, and have two of the top five picks in this year’s lottery at fourth overall as well. Now Dan Gilbert and the rest of the Cleveland braintrust will have to decide the best course of action with this year’s first overall pick, and then again for the fourth.
Depending on who you ask, Duke’s Kyrie Irving and Arizona’s Derrick Williams are favorites atop many a NBA mock draft. The Cavs could have good use with a talent upgrade in almost any regard with their roster, so they wil have a lot of internal debates about which direction to go. They could always take both…
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
3. Utah Jazz
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Washington Wizards
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Utah Jazz
13. Phoenix Suns
14. Houston Rockets
For more discussion and analysis of the NBA Draft, head over to Ridiculous Upside to get in on the action.
The countdown to the 2011 Draft Lottery has already begun as the speculation as to who will take whom and when grows by the minute. But according to Golden State Warriors General Manager Larry Riley there will be a lare emphasis placed on the European players in this year’s draft, more than there’s been in a while.
CSN Bay Area’s Matt Steinmetz asked Riley recently about his thoughts on this year’s draft prospects, and how strong the European flavor will be this year in the draft:
“The impact of the foreign players are going to be felt more because the college draft isn’t quite as good, for two reasons.”
“It was a little bit of a light crop anyway and we’ve had a number of significant players who have decided to return to college for next season. So, you’re going to feel the impact of the European player this year as far as the draft goes. What you hope if you get one of them is that you’ll feel the impact on the floor over the next few years.”
If you want to read between the lines, you could say that the W’s are looking for some foreign born talent in the draft this year. But the fact of the matter is that the European players will likely be on many a team’s radar during this year’s draft, let’s just hope there isn’t another Andris Biedrins waiting in the wings for the W’s to scoop up.
Also, Joe Lacob will represent the W’s on TV tonight during the lottery. But Raymond Ridder, executive director of public relations, will be taking part of the actual lottery that goes on behind the scenes before the broadcast. You didn’t think the NBA would let the lottery play out on live TV did you? So as Lacob sits on stage pretending to have the golden ticket in his hand, he will actually already know that the Warriors won’t win it. Food for thought.
The NBA Draft Lottery seeding gets laid down tonight and the Golden State Warriors “post-season” officially begins. The Warriors are expected to draft at the number eleven spot and, historically, that spot has yielded few lasting results. According to CSN Bay Area’s Matt Steinmetz breakdown of the Warriors draft history since 1985, the Warriors have never moved up when expected to draft at the eleventh spot. Here are the names of the players that the Warriors have drafted at that spot (in chronological order): Todd Fuller, Mickael Pietrus, and Andris Biedrins.
Not exactly an eye-popping group of players.
In fact, since 1985, the Warriors have only moved up three times. The one time they dropped DOWN to the eleventh pick, the Warriors snatched Tyrone Hill, who had a nice career as a defensive presence albeit a bit undersized.
So, what does this mean for our Warriors? Historically speaking, this draft does not bode well for the Warriors. But, really, when has it ever?
Hoopsworld analysts posted their “consensus mock draft 2.0” on the eve of the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery and they pegged the Golden State Warriors to draft one of four different big men all of varying skill-sets and defensive abilities and liabilities. These picks were made under the assumption that the draft order does not change and the Warriors stay put at the number eleven pick corresponding with having the eleventh worst record in the league at seasons end. Of the five analysts, four names popped up with Donatas Motiejunas being the only 2011 draft participant that two analysts both agreed with. The other three possibilities include Jonas Valanciunas, Marcus Morris, and Bismack Biyombo.
Based off Draftexpress.com’s detailed assessments of each player, I would go so far as to say that Marcus Morris would be the best bet for the Warriors given that owner Joe Lacob is in win-now mode. With Morris, you’re getting an undersized big man with a reliable jumper out to 15 feet. Though he seems a big robotic at times with his back to the basket, Morris has good enough handles to get to the rim and he has a decent fade away from the block up to 10 feet. Drawbacks? He seems to play below the rim and that’s not necessarily the best person to have next to David Lee who struggled against almost all forwards taller, quicker, and/or stronger than him. Also, standing at 6’8, it’s not clear at this point how well Morris can rebound at the next level.
Morris may not have the upside of the others listed in the consensus mock draft 2.0, but he has what the Warriors need right now, which is some muscle up front. He may fit into the mold of the Brandon Bass-type. International players Motiejunas and Valanciunas are both raw and rail thin. Motiejunas projects to be more Andrea Bargnani and that’s not a good thing, defensively. Draftexpress.com notes his lack of effort at the defensive end and imagine how much worse that might get playing along side David Lee et al. Valanciunas, shooting 86% from the charity stripe this season, could easily replace Andris Biedrins as the Warriors consistently rawer-than-sushi big man in the middle. But something tells me Lacob wants to get more skilled all-around. And Biyombo has been pegged by some analysts as being a possible #1 overall draft pick. Biyombo falling to the Warriors at #11 seems unlikely. The Warriors could use his defensive efforts and he could be a safe pick that late in the lottery if the Warriors ever have the personnel to help him develop.
On the eve of the NBA Draft Lottery the question on everybody's mind is who's ping pong ball will be drawn as the lucky winner. While in the Bay Area folks have their fingers crossed that the Golden State Warriors will be the team called first. There are a number of teams that have a greater chance of winning the overall first pick, but the beauty of the lottery is all 14 teams have a chance.
Here's a reminder on each team's possible chances for winning the lottery via NBA.com:
LOTTERY CHANCES (out of 100)
Utah (from New Jersey)
Cleveland (from L.A. Clippers)
Remember folks, the first three picks in the Draft will be determined by the lottery. The remaining lottery teams will then be selected for picks 4 through 14 in inverse order of their standings at the end of the 2010-11 regular season. The Sacramento Kings won a coin toss with the New Jersey Nets to be a spot ahead of them due to a tie; New Jersey's pick goes to Utah from the Deron Williams trade.
But who will the Warriors choose? Will they draft by the best available talent at the time or will they draft for team needs? I'll be taking a close look at this next week in a feature piece, but there are a number of players in this years group that could make an immediate impact for the Warriors, especially at the center or forward position. Players include Derrick Williams out of Arizona, Enes Canter out of Kentucky, Marcus and/or Markieff Morris out of Kansas, Kawhi Leonard out of San Diego State, or Donatas Motiejunas from Lithuania. All of these men have the talent to impact the W's in their first year on the team, whether as a starter of a role player. It will be up to the new head coach and his philosophy as to how to Warriors will draft this year, which is a whole other can of worms....
The Draft Lottery will be televised on ESPN at 5 p.m. PT tomorrow afternoon. Don't miss out!
For more discussion and analysis of the NBA Draft, head over to SB Nation's Ridiculous Upside to get in on the action.
Not since the Chris Webber-Mike Bibby-Peja Stojakovic days have the Sacramento Kings had much success in the NBA. And with the pending move to Anaheim becoming closer to being reality, Kings fans have really been getting hammered the past couple of years. And when you talk about their history in the lottery and their subsequent picks the past 10 seasons, I don’t think it brings them any sense of consolation. Since 1985 Sac-town has been in the lottery 13 times in 25 years, a rather impressive feat, but they did have those glory years in the early 2000’s. Here’s a look at their last 10 draft picks:
2001: Gerald Wallace, Alabama
2002: Dan Dickau, Gonzaga
2003: No Pick
2004: Kevin Martin, Western Carolina
2005: Francisco Garcia, Louisville
2006: Quincy Douby, Rutgers
2007: Spencer Hawes, Washington
2008: Jason Thompson, Rider
2009: Tyreke Evans, Memphis
Omri Casspi, Israel (from Houston)
2010: DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
Pretty solid list, lost of names still on the Kings too. Only if they could’ve kept Gerald Wallace…
It’s been a long, long time since the Golden State Warriors have been a truly relevant franchise in the NBA, and they have the draft lottery history to prove it. Since 1985, the Warriors have been a part of the lottery 19 times in 25 years, not exactly something to brag about. But there were a few bright spots in their draft selections in the lottery, while others were better off forgotten. Here’s a condensed version of their pick history; a list of the Warriors first round picks over the past 10 seasons:
2001: Jason Richardson, Michigan State
2002: Mike Dunleavy, Duke
2003: Mickael Pietrus, France
2004: Andris Biedrins, Latvia
2005: Ike Diogu, Arizona State
2006: Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley
2007: Brandon Wright, North Carolina (traded from Charlotte)
Marco Belinelli, Italy
2008: Anthony Randolph, LSU
2009: Stephen Curry, Davidson
2010: Ekpe Udoh, Baylor
The Warriors will hopefully have the wherewithal to make a productive pick this year and stay away from Patrick O’Bryant like situations in 2011.
The NBA draft lottery has become an important part to the health of the NBA's struggling franchises, but at the end of the day it comes down to luck. Sure there was the 1985 gaffe that conspiracy theorists will tell you gave the Knicks Patrick Ewing due to a bent corner on an envelope, this was before they used ping-pong balls (watch the video). Not to mention the 1993 draft where the Magic were the best team to not make the playoffs and still won the first pick despite their terrible odds. Even with the odds stacked against them, any team can pull off a fluke in the lottery.
The teams are set for this year, except for the Jazz and the Kings who may switch places after a coin flip because the Nets gave their pick to Utah in the Deron Williams trade, and they finished with the same record as the Kings.
The following table is from SB Nation's Tom Ziller, breaking down each team's chances of getting the top seed or a top 3 pick:
|Team||No. 1 Pick||Top 3 Pick|
|Jazz (from Nets)||7.6%||25.4%|
|Cavaliers (from Clippers)||2.8%||10.0%|
Even with the slightest of chances of winning, everyone's got a shot. Isn't that why people play the lottery anyway? These 14 teams will be doing the same, trying to beat the odds.
The 2011 NBA season has officially come and gone for 14 teams in the league, who now will focus their energies towards the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery, held on May 17 in Newark, NJ. The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings will be apart of the festivities once again, looking to win the elusive lotto system that can lead you to the promise land by landing the right player. Here's a little breakdown of how this thing works:
To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. So although there is a total of 24 (4!) orders in which the balls numbered 1-2-3-4 can be picked, they are all treated as the same outcome. In doing this, the permutation of 4 balls from 14 becomes the combination of 4 balls from 14. That is, the total of 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14x13x12x11) possible permutations is reduced by a factor of 24, to 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.
So by this somewhat confusing math, we learn than each of the 14 teams has a statistical chance of winning the first pick, with the worst record team with the highest and the best record the lowest. Here are the numbers for teams 1-14 with one being the worst record (without ties):
The Warriors have a 0.8% chance this year of winning the draft according to ESPN's Chad Ford, while the Kings have a 7.5% chance. There are lot's of different scenarios at play that make their chances move around a bit from the above list, Now those numbers don't sound too promising, but that's the beauty of the lottery, it's all about the luck of the draw.
We'll be updating this stream frequently with more vital information for your everyday life, to stick with SB Nation Bay Area for complete coverage of the Warrirors and Kings draft process (yes, we will cover the Kings up until the potentially move to Anaheim).
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