Upton was given a five-year contract by the Braves, which is bad news for the Giants because it makes a fourth year justifiable for the 30-year-old Pagan. Had Upton taken a four-year deal, Pagan may have only been able to get three years on the open market. Still, the first-time free agent may only get a three-year offer from San Francisco, Baggarly believes.
Pagan's career OPS+ of 106 is actually higher than Upton's 105, albeit in a much smaller sample size. However, being three years older won't help Pagan come too close to the $70 million in guaranteed money that Upton will get. The Giants may be aggressive with Pagan, as he fills two of the holes that would be left if he were to sign elsewhere -- a leadoff hitter and an outfielder.